The new year has arrived — and it’s important that we start 2011 fully aware
of the challenges ahead. Here are 11 issues that I, for one, will be watching
closely:
1. A DIVIDED CONGRESS IN WASHINGTON
With the House of Representatives now controlled by Republicans and the
Senate in the hands of Democrats, I doubt that Congress will be able to get much
accomplished over the next two years. Upcoming for Capitol Hill: political
paralysis, congressional gridlock and the start of a brutal campaign for the
White House in 2012.
2. THE WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ
The war in Iraq, which President George W. Bush and the officials in his
administration were never able to justify, has claimed the lives of thousands of
American soldiers. After years of fighting in Afghanistan, it is becoming
apparent that conflict cannot be won. If the U.S. is going to withdraw troops
completely from Iraq at the end of the year, and start to draw them down in
Afghanistan the summer, why not just start now? We know that terrorists are now
based all over the world; keeping the American military in Iraq and Afghanistan
just means more deaths.
3. A CLIMATE OF FEAR
As demonstrated by the recent arrests of suspected terrorists in Sweden and
Denmark, Islamic extremists have realized that, more than destructive acts like
those of Sept. 11, what works best for them is creating a climate of fear around
the world. Within the last decade, unfortunately, we have grown accustomed to
living in the shadow of this menace.
4. IRAN, A REAL THREAT
If Iran manages to develop a nuclear weapon, the world will face great
danger. And if pressure from the United Nations through sanctions turns out not
to be an effective deterrent to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, I don’t believe that
Israel and the United States are simply going to wait around to see what
happens. While it would not be another war, it could mean attacks against Iran’s
nuclear capabilities.
5. MORE WIKILEAKS
The website WikiLeaks has changed politics and journalism; the revelations
leaked online almost every day are each the equivalent of Woodward and
Bernstein’s uncovering the Watergate scandal. Nothing is secret — and
governments worldwide are likely to react strongly. If WikiLeaks is somehow
forced to shut down in 2011, similar sites will replace it immediately.
6. CONTINUED VIOLENCE IN MEXICO
With 30,000 people murdered in the last four years, it is impossible to say
that there has been progress in the fight against Mexico’s drug cartels. This is
an absolute and painful defeat. President Felipe Calderon’s failure to quell the
violence will be the main factor when political parties choose presidential
candidates; and the contenders will be revealed this year. Whoever promises more
convincingly to bring an end to — or at least to effect a considerable
reduction in — Mexico’s rampant violence will become the next president in
2012.
7. THE END OF DEMOCRACY IN VENEZUELA
Hugo Chavez, armed with new dictatorial powers, has cast aside his democratic
facade once and for all. And we will soon see what the 65 newly elected
opposition members in the National Assembly can do about it. In the September
parliamentary election, Chavez’s party lost the popular vote, and the opposition
hopes that will happen again in the 2012 presidential election. Unfortunately,
Chavez controls the nation’s elections apparatus — his ace in the hole.
8. LATIN AMERICA CHOOSES THE PAST OVER THE FUTURE
With presidential elections scheduled for Guatemala, Nicaragua, Peru and
Argentina this year, Latin America has an opportunity to enact great change. But
surveys suggest that it will choose to follow the same old road. Daniel Ortega
is cementing his grip on the presidential chair in Nicaragua; former President
Alejandro Toledo is on the path to return to power in Peru; and Cristina
Fernandez de Kirchner, whose support has only grown since her husband’s death
last October, needs only to say “Yes, I’ll stay” to remain president in
Argentina.
9. CRAZY CLIMATE
No matter where you live, it seems colder or warmer or more rainy or more
windy than before. With global warming, the weather is becoming increasingly
unpredictable, and we are witnessing more and more natural disasters — just
look at the recent flooding in Colombia and Venezuela. We seem to have broken
the Earth’s thermostat, and we’d better prepare for extreme temperatures,
because the repairman is out to lunch.
10. THE END OF E-MAIL
This method of communication is still very useful, so it will not disappear
entirely. But it will see a similar fate as that of letters sent through regular
mail: e-mail will be used less and less. Why wait for an e-mail if you can send
a text or chat from pretty much anywhere via cell phone?
11. A VERY BORING SUMMER
No Olympics nor World Cup this year. The horror. So our summer days will be
full of news that is not news and, with a little luck, long stretches of no news
at all. But that is unlikely — it is only January, and 2011 is already coming
on strong.
By Jorge Ramos Avalos
© 2010 Jorge Ramos
(January 03, 2011)
